We know things feel shaky, but this isn’t the moment to panic. Let’s zoom out and look at what’s actually happening in the market.

The S&P 500 has pulled back below its 50-day moving average and is now testing the 200-day. That kind of move is normal in volatile environments and doesn’t signal anything unusual on its own.

In the Strait of Hormuz, traffic is starting to normalize as Iranian-approved ships resume movement. For the global economy, the key concern is simple: is oil flowing? And right now, it is.

On the geopolitical front, early signs of diplomacy are emerging, including discussions around a potential ceasefire. Meanwhile, oil prices spiked to around $106 per barrel and have since eased closer to $100.

Volatility also tells a story. The VIX has reached 30, a level that historically aligns with heightened fear but often precedes market stabilization or a bounce.

This situation is still evolving, but some of the biggest pressure points are beginning to ease. That opens the door for conditions to gradually improve as we move forward.